538.com and written by a former baseball statistician. Now it is so popular that the NYTimes bought it out and especially during a presidential year it is a must see site as it aggregates polls, uses multi-variate analysis and comes up with it believes the electoral college will be. Today's post discusses the bounce or lack of one from the national conventions. But on the right side of the page you also see the chance of each candidate winning the individual states and the relative importance of mounting a campaign in each one. What I like about the site is that even though Silver is not a Ph.D., he does know his statistics extremely well and uses them to make non-partisan judgments of political races. Use the site to look at your own state's senate campaigns and the presidential one and you won't be disappointed.