this entire post by Nate Silver (probably will!). But if you follow this blog, you know that I have been talking about my political science side (where I earned my PhD) that espouses the fact that presidents win based on the popularity of the incumbent president and the perception of the economy (retrospective voting). To that end Silver has calculated that if Obama gets to 52% in popularity (he is only at 48% right now) and 107,000 jobs per month growth, he will win. That (esp. the latter) will not be easy, but it has been growing at the rate of 200,000 recently. All of this is to say this will be a close, nasty race where super PACs will play a huge role and living in VA, I will get to see lots of ads and appearances by Obama and presumably, Romney.