Tuesday, April 24, 2012

Predicting the Presidential Election

If you follow this blog you know that I have written about my Ph.D. years where one is taught that presidential elections come down to the the perception of the economy and the approval of the current president (even if he is not running).  Well three political scientists (including one at my alma mater) have put together an electronic way to look at whether or not Obama will win re-election.  For example, based on the model, if he has 50% approval and 0% economic growth, it predicts he will win.  Here is the explanation that goes with the model and here is the tool to use with your students.  By the way, while more political scientists lean to the liberal side, their models are quantitative and therefore the numbers do the talking.   The problem is that it is predicting the chance of winning the popular vote and if you want an accurate prediction of that you will need to follow Nate Silver's blog

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