Wednesday, November 30, 2011

More on Predicting the 2012 Presidential Race

Democrats Ruy Teixeira and John Halpin have gained some renown predicting presidential races (alas without always using multivariate regressions).  My students are going to have to look at their just released report looking at page 2 (Table 1) which shows Obama unemployment and his approval in all states.  Then I will want them to look at the changes in demographics in the swing states (in the subsequent pages) and using the page (post below) will have to predict who will win the 2012 presidential election.  Obviously this assumes a political science model where rhetoric has less to do than does the economy. 

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