Saturday, August 6, 2011

Will Obama Win in 2012

The WashPost today has an article stating what most political scientists call the retrospective model - basing re-election chances on presidential approval and the state of the economy - not on rhetoric.  So this means that once the economy started tanking in early Oct 2008 it didn't matter that Obama was talking about hope and Joe the Plumber was attacking him.  For a nice concise overview of the best econometric models from political scientists, you might want to read this article.  Most political scientists do their predictions no later than August and are usually within 2.5% of the popular vote and as little as .5% off.  Obviously if you follow the economics model, it is not looking good for Obama.

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