My doctorate is in political science so this article is particularly appealing to me as my dissertation was steeped in statistics and quantitative research which is exactly what is in involved in polls. So, while, this article from the 538 blog might be too much information for your students, it would be a great background for you to explain some of the nuisances of how statisticians know who might win an election. In this case, the author, Nate Silver discusses the fact that the US Senate now has a 53% chance of going Republican - a number that has been going down.
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